| QUAKELAND On the Road to America's Next Devastating Earthquake Kathryn Miles New York: Dutton, August 2017 |
Rating: 5.0 High |
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| ISBN-13 978-0-525-95518-4 | ||||
| ISBN-10 525-95518-6 | 356pp. | HC | $28.00 | |
The author begins this book by describing the two earthquakes she lived through (only one of which she experienced.) She rates them as inconsequential. Then she says:
Most Americans have earthquake experiences as lackluster as these. The country hasn't had a big one since 1989, when a violent quake rocked Northern California just as TV viewers were tuning in to watch game 3 of that years World Series. – Page 2 |
Unfortunately, she's wrong about that. This table shows the earthquakes since October 1989 in the United States which reached magnitudes greater than the Loma Prieta quake's 6.9.1 During that same period there were a number of earthquakes in the country between 6.0 and 6.8 magnitude, some of which cased deaths. In particular was the Northridge Quake of 17 January 1994 which, although rated only 6.7 in magnitude, proved one of the most devastating in the nation's history with 57 dead, 8,700 injured, and over $13 billion in damages.2
| Date | Location | Magnitude | Fatalities |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25-26 April 1992 | Cape Mendocino, CA | 6.5-7.2 | 0 |
| 28 June 1992 | Landers, CA | 7.3 | 3 |
| 16 October 1999 | Hector Mine, CA | 7.1 | 0 |
| 3 November 2002 | Denali, AK | 7.9 | 0 |
| 23 June 2014 | Aleutian Islands, AK | 7.9 | 0 |
| 24 January 2016 | Old Iliamna, AK | 7.1 | 0 |
When it comes to earthquake hazards in continental America, the lower 48, the popular wisdom is that they are confined to California. Some joke that the Golden State is about to slide off into the Pacific (a myth the author debunks), and more than a few wish it would. But in fact every one of the 48 is subject to earthquakes, as this book shows us in detail. Averaging 200 quakes a year, the New Madrid fault network is the most active east of the Rockies. It is capable of large quakes. But faults are everywhere, and those that break loose on the east coast can be more damaging because most of that region lies on hard bedrock which transmits shocks better.
Stillwater is a city of some 78,000 souls in the north central Oklahoma. It has a diverse economy and is home to Oklahoma state University. CNN Money rated it among the top 100 places to live in 2010.
That doesn't take the tremors into account. They began in 2006, the same year that fracking ramped up in the area. When this book was published, Oklahoma was the most seismically active state among the lower 48. A study done in 2013 3 tied the increased seismicity to fracking operations — notably waste-water injection. Despite this, and the testimony of local residents, state government's official position was that the quakes are not caused by fracking. The state geologist wrote: "It is still the opinion of those at the Oklahoma Geological Survey that these earthquakes could be naturally occurring." Miles reports that Governor Mary Fallin ducked the issue. And as attorney general, Scott Pruitt did nothing about prosecuting fracking companies for causing earthquakes, although he vigorously sued the EPA for imposing pollution regulations on fossil-fuel power plants.
In fairness, I note that the state did change its position in April 2015, 4 although its corporation commission, responsible for wastewater injection, took longer to begin enforcement. But Pruitt did nothing to help, and many think he could have. 5
Then there are the induced quakes. They have many causes. Injecting large quantities of waste water that results from fracking is the most recent cause, but there are many others. Mining can cause them by shifting stress patterns deep within the earth, as can the weight of water building up behind a newly built impoundment dam. Even drawing down a groundwater reservoir can do it, along with causing the ground level to fall. But the worst culprit is the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, which drilled a 12,000-foot-deep well to dispose of waste fluids from production of chemical weapons. Injection began in March 1962; the local area started shaking two months later. Injection stopped in 1967, but the quakes continued for twenty more years.
Kathryn Miles traveled the country for a solid year to gather material for this book. She sought out geologists and paleobotanists for advice and tours of the places where they did their field work. She ventured down into the Lucky Friday mine to see its operations at first hand. She questioned architects and engineers about structures as varied as the DeSoto Bridge, the Washington Monument, the subway tunnels of Manhattan, and the vast array of tank farms and pipelines at Cushing, Oklahoma. All of these are, or have been, vulnerable to earthquakes — despite what the people in charge of them might insist.
We need to believe earthquake scientists when they tell us the big one is coming. While it would be great if we find the technology to predict it, chances are that's not going to be possible in time. So it falls to all of us, both as individuals and as communities, to confront the risk this future event poses. If you live in Florida or North Dakota, that risk may be small enough to warrant little action (though certainly other disasters like tornados and hurricanes are more than real enough for you to take many of the same preventative steps you would if you lived in a more earthquake-prone zone). If you live on the Eastern Seaboard, if you live in a lot of the Midwest, or on the West Coast or in Utah or Oklahoma or Texas or Alaska or Hawaii, your risk is real. It's up to you to be ready for it. – Page 338 |
Kathryn Miles paints a gloomy picture of widespread earthquake vulnerability that is poorly understood, of thousands of buildings, bridges, and other facilities that are insufficiently reinforced, of government and corporate officials more concerned with maximum short-term profit than with long-term benefit of the communities they serve. However, there are flashes of brightness amid the gloom. They include the many scientists she consults, working steadily to understand those earthquakes and, ultimately, learn to forecast their onslaughts; and companies like FedEx, dedicated to maintaining robust operations that can turn into rescue operations in times of crisis. The USGS is developing an app that will provide prompt early warning via smartphones. Emergency services are improving; but individual preparation remains the first line of defense.
In a few places, she comes up with an annoyingly flippant passage. She also makes a few errors of fact. But in the main, she delivers an engrossing narrative that is fairly effective in conveying her messages. There is a list of sources for each chapter, and a very good index. Full marks, and I rate it a keeper.
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