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To Open The Sky

The Front Pages of Christopher P. Winter
Work in progress
Trump deep in thought
Trump deep in thought

Trump Begins

Trump is now president of the United States of America. He has a chance to make good on his many promises. I personally don't think he can make good on many of them, or wants to. It's clear, however, that he can do major damage — both here and overseas. On this page I will point out some of the things he has done, or proposes to do, and why they are damaging.1

Health Care

President Obama's health insurance plan (The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) gave 20 million more people health insurance. Previously, insurers could refuse to cover anyone who had a "pre-existing condition." The list of pre-existing conditions is quite broad; it includes mental health problems, pregnancy, and a wide variety of illnesses common among Americans. President Obama's health care plan (the ACA) prevented insurers from refusing clients on this basis. In doing so, it saved many lives.

The ACA also made it possible for children to stay on their parents' plan until they reached the age of 26. Thus they had a better chance of finding a job and getting their own insurance through an employer. But if they didn't (and employers are generally cutting back on benefits), they could get a policy through the exchanges set up by the ACA. In fact, they were required to do so if they could not afford another private plan. There was a penalty for not having insurance, made necessary by the fact that a large pool of healthy policyholders is needed to keep insurers in business. All insurers in the U.S. are still for-profit businesses. Those who were too poor to afford the premiums could get a subsidy.

From the moment the ACA became law in 2010, Republicans vowed to abolish it. They tried to vote it down some 60 times, once shutting down the federal government in the attempt. They failed. It is worth noting that the ACA closely resembles a plan the Heritage Foundation came up with, and one Mitt Romney enacted in Massachusetts when he was governor. It only became anathema to the GOP when President Obama got behind it. Also, they had six years to come up with an alternative. They failed there too.

Trump campaigned on a promise to repeal the ACA and replace it with something better. Now that Trump is president and the GOP controls both houses of Congress, he has his chance. Here's what repealing the ACA would mean.

  • Applicants for insurance can once again be turned down for pre-existing conditions. It is estimated that 52 million Americans under age 65 have a pre-existing condition.
  • The Congressnional Budget Office estimates that 18 million Americans will lose health insurance in the first year after repeal.
  • Premiums for individual policies would increase by 20% to 25% in the first year after repeal, per the CBO report.
  • The GOP alternative, high-risk pools, is not a viable option.

Sources:

The Bottom Line: The Republicans in Congress had six years to come up with a plan to replace "ObamaCare". They could not.
Now they want to eliminate the ACA regardless, hurting millions of people they promise to help.

Climate Change

Minutes after Trump took the oath of office, all WhiteHouse.gov Web pages dealing with climate change disappeared. Here is what appeared in their place (text on the left, my comments on the right):

An America First Energy Plan
Energy is an essential part of American life and a staple of the world economy. The Trump Administration is committed to energy policies that lower costs for hardworking Americans and maximize the use of American resources, freeing us from dependence on foreign oil. These policies are just motherhood and apple pie; no one objects to them as goals.
For too long, we've been held back by burdensome regulations on our energy industry. President Trump is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the U.S. rule. Lifting these restrictions will greatly help American workers, increasing wages by more than $30 billion over the next 7 years. The Climate Action Plan is necessary. Only those who reject the science of climate change think it isn't. Whatever he may say, Trump is among the Denialists. Here is the proof. The regulations he so glibly calls "harmful and unnecessary" also need to remain in place; they are harmful only to fossil-fuel interests. As for the Waters of the U.S. Rule, it extends the EPA's ability to deal with polluted water to more places.
Sound energy policy begins with the recognition that we have vast untapped domestic energy reserves right here in America. The Trump Administration will embrace the shale oil and gas revolution to bring jobs and prosperity to millions of Americans. We must take advantage of the estimated $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves, especially those on federal lands that the American people own. We will use the revenues from energy production to rebuild our roads, schools, bridges and public infrastructure. Less expensive energy will be a big boost to American agriculture, as well.

America has vast reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas — and also plentiful supplies of renewable energy: wind, solar, geothermal, tidal. Nuclear energy should also be on the list.

Developing nuclear and renewables while phasing out fossil fuels would make America energy independent without worsening climate change. But Trump is committed to fossil fuels only.
The Trump Administration is also committed to clean coal technology, and to reviving America's coal industry, which has been hurting for too long. Clean coal is, quite simply, a pipe dream. And the coal industry is hurting because of strip mining, automation, and the currently lower cost of fracked natural gas. None of these is something Trump can do anything about. Except to retrain coal miners, a policy he dismissed in his campaign.
In addition to being good for our economy, boosting domestic energy production is in America's national security interest. President Trump is committed to achieving energy independence from the OPEC cartel and any nations hostile to our interests. At the same time, we will work with our Gulf allies to develop a positive energy relationship as part of our anti-terrorism strategy. Even while America's domestic production of oil has risen to the point where we export some, we still draw large amounts of oil from the Middle East. That is unikely to change under Trump's policies, despite the fact that the Pentagon wants to power our military with biofuels and renewable sources. And I don't know what "a positive energy relationship" with Persian Gulf allies means, unless it's a tacit acknowledgement that oil imports from the Gulf will continue.
Lastly, our need for energy must go hand-in-hand with responsible stewardship of the environment. Protecting clean air and clean water, conserving our natural habitats, and preserving our natural reserves and resources will remain a high priority. President Trump will refocus the EPA on its essential mission of protecting our air and water. Inasmuch as Trump seeks to roll back EPA regulations, open up our national parks and other federal lands to resource exploitation, and burn more fossil fuels in America, it seems this is just blowing smoke. (Pun intended.) The result would be not only more greenhouse gases but more smoke and soot, more coal ash, more water pollution, and more cases of asthma.
A brighter future depends on energy policies that stimulate our economy, ensure our security, and protect our health. Under the Trump Administration's energy policies, that future can become a reality. A grim reality is what it can become.

Sources:

The Bottom Line: Trump is making good on his threat to end all climate-change mitigation efforts by the federal government. As it did in the GW Bush administration (and in Steven Harper's government in Canada), this begins with purging information from federal sources. It will not end with the White House Web site. Nor will it end well — which is why I call it a threat, rather than a promise.

Other Environmental Matters

Reports suggest Trump wants to revoke President Obama's protection of the Bear's Ear National Monument in Utah, and may order reversals of EPA measures going back decades. At the same time, he declares himself "a very big person when it comes to the environment" and boasts of receiving environmental awards.

Sources:

The Bottom Line: Trump cares nothing for the environment except as land to build on or a source of raw materials that can be extracted and sold.

Terrorism Policy

During the campaign, Trump vowed to use waterboarding and "much worse" on captured terrorists. Qualified experts concur on two things:

  1. Torture is illegal according to the terms of the Geneva Conventions, to which America is a signatory, as well as under U.S. law;
  2. Torture is generally ineffectve as a means of obtaining valid information.

Despite this, Trump reaffirmed his belief, citing unnamed experts who, when he asked them whether torture worked, said the answer was "Yes, absolutely."

There is some hope in this area, since Trump has said he will follow the lead of Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who has disavowed torture. Also, not only the heads of intelligence agencies during the Obama administration but House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (as recently as 26 January) declared it is unlawful and off the table.

However, drafts of executive orders indicate he will keep the prison at Guantánamo open to house terrorists, and may reauthorize the CIA "black sites" overseas.

Sources:

The Bottom Line: There is little doubt that Trump will allow torture if it suits his purposes, despite his promise.

Immigration

Trump has signed executive orders imposing a temporary ban on refugees from Syria and six other Mideast countries,2 removing federal funding from sanctuary cities like San Francisco, and authorizing the start on construction of some sort of a border wall.

One executive order would impose a temporary ban on immigration from Syria and six other Mideast countries, except for religious minorities fleeing persecution, until "more aggressive vetting" is in place. This immediate ban on admissions from those seven countries has had an unintended consequence: it has trapped large numbers of people who hold green cards or long-term visas overseas, with no prospect of being able to return to America before the 90-day term of the ban ends. (Reportedly, the order at first was interpreted as applying to green card holders, but this was walked back.)

The ACLU filed suit in federal court, and a judge blocked a portion of the executive order. High-tech companies are also fighting the order in court, since it affects their workforces in major ways. A bill was introduced in Congress to overturn the order, but that has little chance of passage.

Regarding illegal immigrants from Latin America, Trump has ordered lists of crimes committed in sanctuary cities published monthly, has requested $15 billion to build his "wall" (actually a series of fences), and will withold federal funds from sanctuary cities.

Sources:

The Bottom Line: Trump's efforts in this area have caused immediate problems, generated enormous backlash, and will do little to stave off genuine threats.

Economics

On his very first day in office, Trump revoked a cut in FHA mortgage loan fees announced by the Department of Housing and Urban Development just eleven days before. The cut, intended to take effect on 27 January, would have lowered the fee for an average homeowner by $500. Its loss will affect people at the low end of the economic scale who wish to buy or sell a house.

More recently, he has floated the idea of a 20% "border adjustment tax" on goods imported from Mexico. His intention is to follow through on his claim that Mexico will pay for that border wall. What would really happen is that the prices of the Mexican goods will go up, and American consumers will end up with the bill. Cuts in American jobs are also a likely result.

Sources:

Staffing and Organization

I've devoted another page to Trump's choices for cabinet offices and other high-level positions. A number of these raise conflict-of-interest questions, as does Trump himself. Rick Perry, for example, sits on the board of Energy Transfer Partners, the company building the Dakota Access Pipeline. Considerable ink has been spilled over Trump's potential conflicts of interest, and he has vowed to resolve these issues, but few are convinced he has done so.

The other major issue in this area is the competence of his nominees. Opposition to some of them is developing, but resolution awaits further action by the Congress.

A new wrinkle is the proposed reorganization of the National Security Council, with the Joint Chiefs to be excluded except when Trump deems that they need to attend.

Sources:

1 Not all these policies originate with Trump, nor will he be solely responsible for implementing them. However, while he occupies the Oval Office, he owns the onus.
2 But not from countries where he has business interests.
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This page was last modified on 15 September 2024.