To Open The Sky

When I examine the arguments used by global-warming Denialists, I find some common patterns. I'll discuss those below. But first, it's useful to consider who these Denialists are, and why they so persistently promote disbelief in global warming.

Who are these Denialists?

By and large, they are prominent people; as such, they have more than ordinary influence. They are not all getting money under the table from big oil or coal companies. Some have done so, and it's plausible that this motivated their mendacity. But the number of such shills could never have been more than several hundred, and it is shrinking as the once-reluctant coal and oil producers themselves begin to "cooperate with the inevitable."

Note that it is not unethical for executives of a company with billions invested in coal mines or oil wells to question the need to abandon that investment. It becomes unethical only when they do so dishonestly. But as fossil fuels become harder to extract, as wind and solar get less expensive, and as the effects of warming multiply, sticking to a pure fossil-fuel business model becomes less and less defensible on practical as well as moral grounds.

Politics plays a part: Republicans are more likely than Democrats to disbelieve in AGW.1 While some Democrats (and presumably members of minor parties) do deny the reality of aspects of science (like vaccination), I know of none who deny that global warming is caused mainly by humans. No doubt fundamentalist Christianity is also a factor. Those who read their Bible literally would be inclined to believe they are a special creation, whom God will preserve no matter what. But the dominant factor is probably poor understanding of science coupled with, paradoxically, too much faith in the technological miracles wrought by free-market development of science. This faith was seen in George W. Bush's oft-proclaimed optimism that voluntary compliance would solve all environmental problems.

Deniers

It's important to distinguish between Denialists and deniers. Deniers don't believe in AGW, or don't believe it's a looming crisis. But, unlike the Denialists, they feel no need to push their disbelief onto others. They are, for the most part, ordinary Americans. They hold down a job they may not enjoy in order to keep food on the family table, a roof over their heads, and gas in the car. They resent large impersonal forces (like government) screwing with their lives. Their understanding of science is less than adequate.2 They know it has given us great things, but are confused and annoyed by the steady barrage of conflicting claims from "experts" about subjects like nutrition, disease and, yes, global warming. From their ranks come the Denialists, but more important, they are the reason the Denialists have such influence. Without large numbers of deniers, the Denialists would be much less of a problem.

Denialists, then, arise from the pool of deniers for one of two reasons: either they have become radicalized by outrage over what they perceive as a series of unfounded warnings, or they simply seek to preserve their comfortable position. The news media play a part in creating that perception of unfounded warnings. Just in recent memory are grim headlines about things like alar, bird flu, cyber-crime, deficit spending, endangered species, mad cow disease, obesity, SARS, Y2K... the list goes on and on. Meanwhile, the real work that staves off many of the threats the headlines warned against goes on behind the scenes, largely unreported by the media. It's easy to perceive such headlines as empty warnings, nothing more than a way to sell newspapers. So why should global warming be any different?

But it's also important to note that, since I first put these pages together, the "ground truth" of climate change has changed considerably. Calfornia has suffered through a four-year drought; both the Gulf Coast and the northeast coast have been battered by stronger than usual storms; and the midwest has endured numerous floods of the kind that used to be known as "500-year flood." In addition, the long-term trends of less severe winters, earlier springtimes, and longer wildfire seasons in the intermountain west have continued. These changes have made the people who lived through them sit up and take notice; thus, the population of deniers has also decreased.

Characteristics of Denialist arguments

A large segment of the American public is poorly informed about science. Such ignorance can readily be exploited. And it is being exploited, by those with large stakes in the status quo, to defend their interests. Again, this is a relative handful of people. Most of the energy industry understands that global warming is real, and that the changes it will bring present new opportunities for profit. Most politicians also understand these things. But a relative handful cannot or do not accept the new reality. For whatever reason, they seek to fend it off as long as possible. Their tactics fall under the rubric of FUD: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.3

The primary goal of a well-run FUD campaign is to avoid discussing the facts of the matter at hand, when the facts don't favor your side. Global-warming Denialists have this down to a science, if you'll pardon the phrase. They cherry-pick facts, quote experts out of context, ignore unsuitable evidence, misuse statistics, and generally dismiss the big picture. Denialists leap on the slightest discrepancy in data presented by a mainstream scientist to claim that his entire study is without merit. At the same time, they ignore all rebuttals to arguments they present. Distraction is an essential part of this process. If one claim is demolished, they simply trot out another from an array of seemingly plausible arguments. By the time that one is demolished, a third one is ready. And so it goes. If this round-robin distraction should falter, the ad hominem attack is an ever-ready backup. Thus, the typical arguments depend on rotation (as already discussed), on repetition, ridicule and rodomontade — which supports my contention that they are part of a political campaign.

• Repetition — Denialists do not rebut the claims of scientists; they simply sidestep them, raising the same long-discredited talking points again and again. It's not hard to figure out that their intent is to wear down the opposition (or at least the undecided public.) In fact, political attacks on the scientific evidence for global warming are on the increase, as noted here:
  
  Meanwhile back at the ranch (Michael Tobis, Only In It For The Gold)
• Ridicule — It is common for Denialist arguments to include ad hominem attacks, by turns calling the opposition shamefully gullible or shamelessly greedy. Al Gore has become the chief target of such attacks, with James Hansen a close second. Here's an example:
  
  10 Reasons To Doubt Global Warming is Man-Made (Duane Lester, All American Blogger — at Internet Archive, 25 Mar. 2012)
• Rodomontade — There are two sides to the argument from rodomontade (boasting or bluster). One side maintains that humanity can easily adapt to the effects of global warming, whatever they turn out to be, often adding that humankind survived previous climate changes just fine — as if that's relevant to our current situation. The other side claims that global warming will actually be good for us, as this site humorously avers:
  
  Ten reasons to love global warming (Garry Reed, From Reason to Freedom — at Internet Archive, 1 Feb. 2008)

Finally, fear comes into play when, casting aside their nonchalance, they point to the costs of fighting global warming — costs so enormous, they maintain, that the economy will collapse. They rarely discuss the costs of not fighting global warming.

Climate scientists have recently been subject to fears of a more personal nature. These include both investigations for alleged malpractice4 and threats of death.5

Add up all their contradictory claims and you have a nonexistent phenomenon which will be largely beneficial, but whose harmful effects, if any, will be dealt with in due time through technical advances produced by the free market. The sensible course, therefore, is to ignore the doomsayers. However, if any action is taken to combat global warming, the entire world will go bankrupt.

A scientifically literate person might think that, with all the information about global warming that is freely available on the Web, in popular magazines, on television, and in scientific journals — not to mention plain common sense — these absurd arguments would have long since faded away. Sadly, I have found this not to be the case. Since the Denialists won't see reason and stop of their own accord, I conclude they must be forced to stop.

So what's to be done?

That conclusion begs the question of what can be done about this obstinate obstruction. My opinion is that the Denialists must be engaged as often as possible, on as many fronts as possible. Those who seek to oppose them should be familiar with the general scientific picture, but need not be up on every detail. This is because pinning Denialists down on details is not helpful; in fact, it is a waste of time. A better plan is to turn their own tactics against them. Point out inconsistencies. Ask them for citations. Remember that the real goal is to convince the audience. Be polite, but firm. Keep in mind the following talking points:

• If climate is so poorly understood, the effects of AGW might be much milder than expected — or much harsher.
• All estimates of the economic impact say fighting AGW will cost a lot, but doing nothing will cost far more.
• The longer we delay, the more the costs of either option will increase.
• It is poor people and underdeveloped nations who will suffer the most, while it is the rich, developed nations who have caused most of the problem.
• No one, however wealthy, will be untouched. Whether they're hit by stronger storms, rising tides, heat waves, or withering drought, all will feel global warming's effects. And its effects on the globalized economy will reach everyone, AGW believers and skeptics alike — and their children and grandchildren as well. So Denialists' conspiracy theories are as bogus as the rest of their arguments.

In any real-time confrontation with Denialists, don't let their endless barrage of nonsense make you lose your temper, or tempt you into mockery. That's what it is intended to do. Remember that the facts and reason are on your side. Stay cool, and you'll prevail.

Denialist Tactics

1. The Luntz Memo and the Framing of Climate Change
2. The Truth About Denial (Sharon Begley, Newsweek, 13 Aug 2007)
3. Conservative think tanks and environmental scepticism (Posted by Dan Moutal on 28 June 2008)
   
   "While this really shouldn't come as much of a surprise to anyone who has had even a passing interest in environmental issues, a new study in the journal Environmental Politics has concluded that over 90% of books downplaying the seriousness of environmental problems (also known as denial) had direct links to conservative think tanks (CTT)."
4. Environmental Skeptics Are Overwhelmingly Politicized, Study Says (Ben Block, Worldwatch Institute, 12 Jun 2008)
5. REVEALED: Marc Morano's Pack Of Climate Denial Jokers (Brad Johnson, Climate Progress, 17 Feb 2009)
   
   "Morano's 'entire job,' Gristmill's David Roberts explains, 'is to aggregate every misleading factoid, every attack on climate science or scientists, every crank skeptical statement from anyone in the world and send it all out periodically in email blasts' to the right-wing echo chamber. The Wonk Room has acquired Morano's email list, and we can now reveal the pack of climate skeptics, conservative bloggers, and corporate hacks who feed the misinformation machine."
6. Who is behind climate change deniers? (David McKnight, Western Australia Today, 2 Aug 2008)
7. Climate of Denial (Bill McKibben, Mother Jones, May/June 2005)
   
   McKibben: "I was standing next to a top industry lobbyist, a man who had spent the last week engineering opposition to the treaty, huddling with Exxon lawyers and Saudi delegates, detailing the Venezuelans to change this word, the Kuwaitis to soften that number. Right now he looked just plain tired. 'I can't wait to get back to Washington,' he said. 'In Washington we'll get this under control again.' "
8. The denial industry (George Monbiot, The Guardian, 19 Sep 2006)
9. Manufactroversy: The Art of Creating Controversy Where None Existed
   (By Leah Ceccarelli, 11 April 2008)
   
   "Three recent examples of manufactured controversy are global warming skepticism, AIDS dissent in South Africa, and the intelligent design movement's 'teach the controversy' campaign. The first of these has been called an 'epistemological filibuster' because it magnifies the uncertainty surrounding a scientific truth claim in order to delay the adoption of a policy that is warranted by that science."
10. Climate Denial's Biggest Hypocrites? (Theo Spencer, Natural Resources Defense Council, 12 Feb 2009)
    
    Comments on a TV ad paid for by Americans for Prosperity, the group founded by David Koch, billionaire owner of a holding company for coal and oil firms.
11. Climate Denial Crock of the Week (Peter Fairley, IEEE Spectrum EnergyWise, 17 Feb 2009)
    
    "Opponents of the theory of anthropogenic climate change are hard at work via Internet forums making a last stand against the present societal momentum to address our impact on global climate and, specifically, to reduce the carbon footprint of our energy systems. They tend to repackage a dozen or so arguments, each of which takes a factual nugget, strips it of its scientific context, and twists it into a proof that climate change is either a natural process or a figment of the IPCC's imagination. Midland, MI-based multimedia producer, cartoonist, and alternative energy enthusiast Peter Sinclair is returning fire, nugget-for-nugget, with his new YouTube-distributed video series, Climate Denial Crock of the Week."
12. Interview with Peter Sinclair at MSSC Summit 2009 (YouTube, 2:49)
13. The American Denial of Global Warming (Video, 58 minutes)
    (Naomi Oreskes, Professor of history at UC San Diego)
    
    This video looks best on YouTube, but an alternate source is here.
14. Climate Change Denialism is Dead; long live Climate Change Denialism
    Or: How Real Science Reacts to Surprising Data
    (Jon Dursi, No More Shall I Roam, 20 Aug 2005)
15. SCIENCE AND NONSCIENCE CONCERNING HUMAN-CAUSED CLIMATE WARMING (PDF, 23 pages)
    (J. D. Mahlman, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 1998)
16. Climate Change: Debunking a Denier (Gooch, Get Energy Smart NOW!, 9 Feb 2009) MALWARE?
17. Global Warming: Heated Denials (Lisa Chiu, The Center for Public Integrity, 30 Sep 2008)
18. Why Climate Denialists are Blind to Facts and Reason (From the diary of the late Johnny Rook, Daily Kos, 12 May 2008)
19. Hoax Study 'Disproving' Global Warming Fools Skeptics (History Commons, 3 Nov 2007)
    
    "Talk show host Rush Limbaugh tells his listeners of the study, apparently misunderstanding a warning from global warming skeptic Dr. Roy Spencer. While Spencer tells Limbaugh that the study is a spoof, Limbaugh tells listeners that the study proves global warming itself is a hoax. Spencer will apologize to Limbaugh for 'not being clear.' "

The Media

1. The climate con: media, misinformation, and the masters of spin (Liisa Antilla, One Blue World, 6 Oct 2006)
2. "Mediarology": The Roles of Citizens, Journalists, and Scientists in Debunking Climate Change Myths
   (Stephen H. Schneider, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University)
3. Climate Experts Tussle Over Details. Public Gets Whiplash. (Andrew C. Revkin, New York Times, 29 July 2008)
4. "Must-read study: How the press bungles its coverage of climate economics" (Joseph Romm, ClimateProgress, 25 Jan 2009)
   
   One of the country's leading journalists, Eric Pooley, has written a searing critique of the media's coverage of global warming, especially climate economics, for Harvard's prestigious Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy. Pooley has been managing editor of Fortune, national editor of Time, Time's chief political correspondent, and Time's White House correspondent, where he won the Gerald Ford Prize for Excellence in Reporting. Before that, he was senior editor of New York magazine.
5. Hot Air in the Media Contributes to Global Warming!
   
   A good criticism of the media's coverage of Gore & Hansen, as well as detailed analysis of works by Wm. J. Broad, Spencer, etc.

The Public

1. What do Americans think about climate change at the state and local level? (Journalist's Resource, updated 10 June 2015)
2. Fighting Over Darwin, State by State (Pew Forum, 4 Feb 2009; updated 2014)
3. Scientific Literacy: How Do Americans Stack Up? (Science Daily, 27 Feb 2007)
4. MSU prof: Lack of science knowledge hurting democratic process (Michigan State University, 15 Nov. 2007)
   
   I include these three sites to give some idea of the public's general understanding of science and its impact on democracy.
5. A Deeper Partisan Divide Over Global Warming (Pew Research Center, 8 May 2008)
6. Deniers are still mostly duping GOP voters (Joseph Romm, Climate Progress, 3 Feb 2009)
7. Publics Around the World Call for Greater Efforts to Address Climate Change (World Public Opinion.org, 30 Nov 2011)
   
   Finds the belief that AGW is real and potentially harmful has been growing, except in America during the Bush administration.
8. "U.Va. poll: Most say global warming is real and they want government to deal with it" [News story deleted from site]
   (Melodie N. Martin, Richmond Times-Dispatch, 11 Dec 2008)
   
   "Virginians and most other Americans believe global warming is a real and serious problem, a poll says, and they want local, state and federal governments to do something about it. They're split, however, on what should be done.
   "Those results from national and state-level polls measuring public attitudes on climate change were released today during the National Conference on Climate Governance at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.
   'The public believes all levels of government should be involved or are responsible for this,' said Christopher Borick, co-author of the report. 'They support regulatory options but strongly oppose tax-based approaches.' "
9. Climate Change Denial (George Marshall, Climate Outreach Information Network)
   
   This site explores the psychology of climate change denial, and often provides an Israeli perspective. It also includes a scathing review of Lawrence Solomon's book The Deniers, which according to its subtitle has the topic of "The World-Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud (and those who are too fearful to do so)." (The review first appeared on 28 July 2008 here in more readable form.)

Business and Climate Change

1. Transition to a low-carbon economy (Goldman Sachs, 2010) (8-page PDF)
2. Economic opportunities in a low-carbon world
   by Eric Beinhocker and Jeremy Oppenheim, McKinsey's Climate Change Special Initiative)
3. Aligning Policies for the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy (OECD, June 2015) (224-page PDF)
4. The Climate Deception Dossiers (56-page PDF)
   Internal Fossil Fuel Industry Memos Reveal Decades of Corporate Disinformation
5. View from the States: ExxonMobil — The Rest of the Story (businessGreen blog, 22 May 2007 — registration required)
6. Investor groups point finger at "Climate Laggards": Exxon, GM and Others (businessGreen blog, 20 Feb 2009 — registration required)
7. 4 Ways Exxon Stopped Action on Climate Change (Naomi Ages, Greenpeace International | 27 Nov 2015)
8. Exxon's 25 Year "Drop Dead" Denial Campaign Andy Rowell, Oil Change International, 14 Apr 2014
9. ALEC Exposed: Warming Up to Climate Change Submitted by Jill Richardson on July 27, 2011
10. Americans for Prosperity: Distorting climate change science and economics in well-funded campaign Rick Piltz, Climate Science & Policy Watch, 18 Mar 2010
11. Exposing the dirty money behind fake climate science Greenpeace, 30 Mar 2010
12. Dealing in Doubt (66-page PDF) by Greenpeace (Hosted at Climate Access www.climateaccess.org/
13. Institutionalizing Delay: foundation funding and the creation of U.S. climate change counter-movement organizations (14-Page PDF)
14. Crimes against Humanity:The Genocidal Campaign of the Climate Change Contrarians Robert Nadeau, lead author
    Part of a series of articles on the Climate Change Disinformation Campaign
15. Research on the "sponsors" behind the Heartland's New York Climate Change Conference (Kevin Grandia, DeSmogBlog, 24 February 09)
16. Moving to a global low carbon economy: implementing the Stern Review (BBC 09 Oct. 2007) (47-page PDF)
17. Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change Executive Summary (27-page PDF)
18. Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change Complete Report (662-page PDF)
19. Climate change may carry huge price tag for California (Margot Roosevelt, LA Times, 14 Nov. 2008)
20. Warming's Costs to Top Its Benefits, Study Says (Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, 17 Oct. 2007)
21. The Market Myth (Posted by David Roberts on 06 Jan 2009)
22. Tally of Interests on Climate Bill Tops a Thousand (Marianne Lavell, Center for Public Integrity, 10 August 2009)
23. Carbon Taxes: Nudging the Free Market Fairy — Review of Hot Air: Meeting Canada's Climate Change Challenge (by Ian Angus, Climate and Capitalism, 6 Mar 2008)
24. James Hansen: "Ways and Means" and peaceful protest at Capitol Power Plant, Washington, DC, March 2 (Cassandra Moderna, Climate Change: The Next Generation, 27 Feb 2009)
    
    Dr. Hansen: "On the train I read on politico.com that the number of lobbyists in DC working to influence federal policy on climate change increased in the past few years by 300% to 2,340 lobbyists — four climate lobbyists for every member of Congress. At least the alligator shoe business is doing well. Not too good for alligators, though.
    
    A Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend would not let Congress enrich their favorites or divine winning technologies. Instead, the winners would be innovators who invent products with improved energy efficiency or develop carbon-free energies, which allow people to reduce their carbon tax. Of course, if you don't trust your innovation skills, it is easier to pay a lobbyist to get Congress to adopt a jury-rigged Cap&Trade system."

Harrassment and Violence

1. The Battle Over Climate Science (By Tom Clynes Posted June 21, 2012)
   Climate scientists routinely face death threats, hate mail, nuisance lawsuits and political attacks. How much worse can it get?
2. Exxon Targets Journalists Who Exposed Massive Climate Cover Up (Lauren McCauley, Common Dreams | 2 Dec 2015)

The Bush Years

Science during the Bush administration was treated as an inconvenience to be dispensed with when its findings conflicted with Republican policy. The damage was pervasive: Competent scientists were cut from advisory panels and replaced by industry lobbyists or ideologues; political hacks watered down study conclusions to conform to doctrine; cabinet members ignored staff recommendations for the sake of party loyalty; dissenting scientists were monitored or even muzzled; funding was shifted to faith-based programs; anti-pollution standards were relaxed. Early in his first term, Bush renounced his campaign pledge to cut carbon dioxide, undercutting his EPA director in the process. Quite a few scientists, as well as other administration officials, resigned in protest over Bush's policies. His EPA director was one of them.

An array of diverse organizations fought back, investigating and exposing the suppression and distortion of science. During Bush's second term, Congress began investigations of its own. Books were written. Reports were issued. Hearings and press conferences were held. There is a great deal of documentation. I contributed a tiny bit of it myself, while Bush was in office.

But now he's out of office, and President Obama has pledged to restore scientific integrity to the White House. I don't think it serves any purpose to examine the past administration's misconduct here. But I do think it's important to recognize and understand the extent of that misconduct. The following links are a small part of what's available.

1. Memo exposes Bush's new green strategy (Oliver Burkeman, The Guardian, 3 Mar 2003)
2. Redacting the Science of Climate Change (PDF, 138 pages)
   (Tarek Maassarani, Government Accountability Project, March 2007)
3. Perino: 'There Are Public Health Benefits To Climate Change' For People Who Die From 'Cold'
   (Matt Corley, ThinkProgress, 25 Oct 2007)
   
   Ms. Perino: "I'm sure lots of people would love to ridicule me when I say this, but it is true that many people die from cold-related deaths every winter. And there are studies that say that climate change in certain areas of the world would help those individuals."
4. Whistleblower's Revenge (William S. Becker, The Environmentalist, March 2009)