HALFWAY TO ANYWHERE

Reviewed 3/01/1997

HALFWAY TO ANYWHERE: Achieving America's Destiny in Space G. Harry Stine New York: M. Evans & Co., 1996				Rating: 5.0 High
ISBN-13 978-0-87131-805-3
ISBN 0-87131-805-9	304pp.	HC/BWI	$21.95

There is a revolution under way. It is a slow revolution (some would say revoltingly slow) and it is not being televised. Yet, it does exist — and it promises to change our lives.

G. Harry Stine is one of the architects of this revolution. For some forty years, he has been involved in the cutting edge of aerospace technology. He has recorded significant parts of the history of the space age, and has enumerated aspects of its possible future. Stine's principal goal is now called CATS — cheap access to space. This is what we have been promised by "The Powers That Be" in aerospace, but what they have not yet delivered. It is the revolution of which I speak.

And it is the subject of this book. Working from his own intimate knowledge of the field, beginning as a range safety officer at White Sands, with many contacts from a long aerospace career, and with documents contributed "over the transom", he sets forth the concept of the SSTO, or Single Stage To Orbit vehicle.

This is not a new concept. It is now at least thirty years old. But the realization of the concept has had to await new technology, new operational strategies, and most of all a new mind-set. For the existing aerospace power structure (NASA and the major contractors) has developed over the decades since Sputnik an overly cautious approach intent on avoiding all risk and maintaining the status quo. The result of this is that getting into space requires billions of dollars (what Stine labels "dirksens"),1 and the design and deployment of new vehicles takes at least a decade.

Stine's argument is that there is another way. He describes it here. The subject is a complicated one; but at bottom it rests on two new ways of thinking: Design the vehicle to be easy to operate, so that it can be launched frequently, without the "standing army" needed by the shuttle; and return to the traditional method of testing it, which relies on testing in flight and solving problems as they arise, rather than attempting to create a perfect vehicle on the drawing board.

Halfway to Anywhere is two-thirds history; a history of the space age to date, with special emphasis on the battle over the implementation of a true SSTO vehicle. Stine documents fairly convincingly that NASA and certain factions within the U.S. government are dedicated to impeding this effort, sometimes even despite the express wish of the Congress. It is not an inspiring story. However, the forces of history are arrayed against their obstruction. With the end of the cold war, the advent of the microcomputer and other technological advances, and the experience gained in reaching orbit, it is clear that CATS is inevitable. The only things in doubt are the timetable for launch, and which nation's flag will be emblazoned on the vehicles.

Thus, the final chapters of this book can paint a hopeful picture. The technology for a true SSTO is nearly in hand; the hurdles to overcome are now mainly legal and political. Once these are surmounted, economic models predict its viability as a business. According to Stine's forecast, package delivery is the first market likely to be served. When critical parts can be shipped halfway around the world in two or three hours, for a fee of under $10,000, demand will appear. After a few years of successful operation, the SSTO will be modified to accept passengers — and space tourism will be a reality. The book also mentions manufacture of unique products on orbit. But, perhaps because of proprietary considerations, Stine does not go into detail about this. No matter; when wealthy people pay $100,000 for a world cruise, the estimated price of $14,600 for a round trip to orbit will find many takers. Also, there will be orbiting hotels; the Japanese already have one planned out on paper.

Stine's econometric models have been vetted by business experts such as Wolfgang H. Demisch (Managing Director for Institutional Equities, BT Securities Corp.), who contributes a foreword to this book. The bottom line is profit. The bottom line is the realization of a dream long deferred, and the opening of a door to the real possibilities of space commerce.

1 The name comes from Everett Dirksen (1896-1969), former Senate Minority Leader. He famously said, "A billion here, a billion there. Pretty soon you're talking real money."