| THE GLOBAL DEAL Climate Change and the Creation of a New Era of Progress and Prosperity Nicholas Stern New York: PublicAffairs, April 2009 |
Rating: 5.0 High |
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| ISBN-13 978-1-58648-669-3 | ||||
| ISBN-10 1-58648-669-1 | 248pp. | HC/GSI | $26.95 | |
Here, at long last, a professional (and professionally competent) economist weighs in with an explanation suitable for a lay audience of why prompt and worldwide action against climate change is both necessary and affordable. And Nicholas Stern is not just another economist; he has for over 40 years conducted field research on the growth of poor communities in Ethiopia, Kenya, and India, with special emphasis to small tea farms in the Indian village of Palanpur. These experiences taught him that "Good policy unleashes entrepreneurship and achievement."1 He has also held senior policy positions at the World Bank and in Britain's government. He is now Chairman of the Grantham Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, first holder of the I. G. Patel Chair in Economics and Government at the London School of Economics, and Director of the India Observatory.
Lord Stern's varied career has given him other important insights.
It's not the most important point Lord Stern makes in this book, but it is one we must heed: It's high time to give over pointless arguments and get with the program.
"The argument that the dangers are great and that the world should act strongly and urgently is, or should be, over. The main purpose of this book is to argue that what we now understand is sufficient to point us unequivocally to measured and structured policies that involve deep cuts in emissions, in cost-effective and equitable ways, and that promote careful and considered adaptation to the effects of the climate change which will occur. I offer a blueprint of how to build a safer planet, or how to manage climate change while creating a new era of growth and prosperity. This is emphatically not a blueprint in the sense of a master plan of the kind that used to emerge from planning commissions in centrally planned [economies]. It examines what we now need: strategies, international understandings and policies that will guide action, correct the biggest market failure the world has seen and provide a framework for the entrepreneurship and discovery across the whole of business and society, which can show us how to achieve a cleaner, safer, more sustainable pattern of growth and development." – Page 7 |
In addition to recognizing the great potential dangers in allowing carbon emissions to continue unabated, the world must see that controlling them is affordable.
"What are the potential sources of the international public funding for a global deal? The broad answer must be the overall public revenues, principally taxation. That may not be great news for the finance ministers of the rich world, but these are expenditures from the public purse that make eminent sense. To say we cannot afford it is nonsense. Public revenues in rich countries are usually 30-40% of national income: 0.3% from the 30-40% (representing around 1% of government expenditure) for a global deal is money well spent. The returns in terms of climate security compare very favorably, in my view, with security provided by defence budgets, which typically run at ten times this figure, around 10% of government expenditures in rich countries. An expenditure on climate security as a global threat, of one-tenth of that on security from external threats from other nations does not look excessive given the dangers. The claim 'we cannot afford it' is not very different from 'we are not sufficiently bothered to deal seriously with climate change'. This is simply reckless." – Page 179 |
"The two greatest problems of our times — overcoming poverty in the developing world and combating climate change — are inextricably linked. Failure to tackle one will undermine efforts to deal with the other: ignoring climate change would result in an increasingly hostile environment for development and poverty reduction, but to try to deal with climate change by shackling growth and development would damage, probably fatally, the cooperation between developed and developing countries that is vital to success. Developing countries cannot 'put development on hold' while they reduce emissions and change technologies. Rich and poor countries have to work together to achieve low-carbon growth; but we can create this growth and it can be strong and sustained. And high-carbon growth will eventually destroy itself. We confuse the issues if we try to create an artificial 'horse race' between development and climate responsibility." – Page 8 |
The understanding that ending poverty is not the alternative to mitigating the effects of climate change, but an integral part of it, is hugely important and too seldom appreciated. Some of the other truths Lord Stern elucidates in this book are:
Perhaps most important is his observation that widespread discussion can go a long way to breaking the logjam.
"When it comes to climate change, information and public discussion can have a profound effect on what individuals see as responsible. Who takes part in the discussion is also vital, as notions of responsibility depend on which community we believe ourselves to belong to. In this case, the issue concerns the whole world, now and over the indefinite future, so we need to ensure that discussion is broad and that we think through the involvement of future generations. Young people are central to the discussion; we must all try and incorporate their views and think about the rights and preferences of future generations who cannot directly participate in decisions that will affect them." – Page 119 |
Which brings him to the subject of media responsibility.
"The media, newspapers, radio, television, Web and so on have a great responsibility in presenting evidence in a measured and careful way. All too often, however, a desire for theatre or misplaced assessment of the balance of the argument leads them to, for example, give similar time to scientists and deniers of the science, when the balance of the argument in logic and evidence is 99 (or more) to 1, not 50-50. There is also a real difficulty in keeping long-term issues in the public eye." – Pages 131-2 |
It will, he warns, be a challenge to communicate the need for action to the general public, in the face of strident and persistent obfuscation. Government has a responsibility to use its bully pulpit; the media have a responsibility to report the truths inherent in the situation; and we as citizens have the responsibility to pay attention to what is being said.2
"For any US administration, overcoming the misperception that policies to reduce emissions will harm the economy, and making convincing arguments that domestic support for change is possible without resorting to trade barriers, is a key challenge. Competitiveness issues affect only a few sectors to any serious degree, although the political voice of these sectors is relatively loud. The voice of potential winners in the private sector, on the other hand, is not being heard loudly enough. A powerful case on the new opportunities for America from strong action on climate change, and addressed directly to his fellow Americans, has been made by Tom Friedman in his book Hot, Flat, and Crowded, which in autumn 2008 was number one on the non-fiction best-seller lists in the US." – Pages 185-6 |
Removing that unnecessarily obstructive misperception will require the logic and good economic numbers that the author demonstrates a firm command of here. But ethical imagination and a sense of empathy are also necessary. Anyone reading this book will see that Lord Stern has those qualities; his example is worth emulating. Above all, the resolution will require all of us, especially the doubters, to accept that this new world can be reached without wracking the old one.
"This is a very attractive world and it is not fanciful. It can be built using policies and technologies we broadly understand and can develop and implement. It is a world where we can raise our ambitions for growth, development, and poverty reduction across all nations, but particularly in developing countries. And previous examples of rapid change in investment and technologies show that we can achieve, in the timescale that is necessary, the deep cuts in emissions necessary for a safer planet." – Page 48 |
Lord Stern makes his case here in a low-key but persuasive narrative. His arguments are cogent and presented in well-organized fashion, supplemented with charts at appropriate places. There are abundant end notes and a good index. I give the book full marks and rate it a must-read and a keeper, since it is full of statistics that can come in handy in the continuing dispute. There are print and on-line references as well. In addition to these, there is a bibliography with 91 entries.
To contact Chris Winter, send email to this address.