THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Reviewed 11/23/2006

The Winds of Change, by Eugene Linden

THE WINDS OF CHANGE Climate, Weather, and the Destruction of Civilizations Eugene Linden New York: Simon & Schuster, February 2006				Rating: 5.0 High
ISBN-13 0-978-684-86352-8
ISBN-10 0-684-86352-9	302pp.	HC/GSI	$26.00

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Much has been written about the potential harmful impacts of climate change. Much of that is denials that climate change is occurring at all, or if it is, it will be beneficial.

It is true that forecasting the kinds and amounts of change cannot be precise, and that such forecasts become less precise as they attempt to focus more narrowly on a region or a future year. It is also true that estimates for the cost of countermeasures against the predicted harm will vary over a wide range; thus, opponents of such countermeasures can plausibly inflate them almost without limit. (But it is wise to remember that, in the past, environmental remediation measures have almost always cost far less than worst-case estimates.)

Global warming is the current concern. Possible effects of a rising average temperature at Earth's surface include:

Higher mean sea level due to melting of glaciers and land-borne ice sheets, leading to flooding of many islands and low-lying coastal areas.
Disruption of expected rainfall patterns. Previous croplands may become desert, and vice versa.
More intense hurricanes and storms generally as warmer land and water pump more energy into them.
Large-scale migrations away from affected areas. Refugee problems.
Spread of pathogens and pest organisms into new ranges; consequent disease epidemics and crop losses.
Release of more greenhouse gases from permafrost and undersea clathrates; possible runaway.

One of the unique things about The Winds of Change is that it discusses the financial impacts on e.g. insurance and real estate markets. A particular gem is this:

The climate-change threat that will really get the attention of executives and company directors is that they might be liable for damages. This could happen if insurers like financial giant Swiss Re start changing the insurance policies that insulate directors and officers (called D&O insurance) from the cost of lawsuits resulting from the actions of their corporations. Businesses open themselves to lawsuits when they take a position contrary to others in their industry, and in recent cases such as asbestos litigation, courts have assessed damages proportionate to a company's contribution to a problem.

Chris Walker of Swiss Re describes how this might come about with regard to climate change. He notes that energy giant ExxonMobil accounts for roughly 1 percent of global emissions and has aggressively lobbied against any efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. "So," says Walker, "we might then go to them and say, 'Since you don't think climate change is a problem, we're sure you won't mind if we exclude climate-related lawsuits and penalties from your D&O insurance.' " In 2004, Swiss Re set the stage for such action by sending a questionnaire to its D&O customers inquiring about their company's strategy to deal with climate-change regulations.

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